Macro: the hard numbers up front
The European e-commerce market has just crossed another threshold. In 2025, online B2C purchases in Europe reached €911 billion — up from €842 billion the year before. That's +7% nominally and +4% in real terms; EU-27 alone grew by +5% in real terms. The figures come from the latest European e-commerce report covering 38 countries, compiled by the Centre for Marketing Innovation (Amsterdam University of Applied Sciences, Jesse Weltevreden).
These numbers matter not because they are large, but because they show a trend that is not reversing. E-commerce is no longer a supplementary channel or a pandemic-era stopgap — it is the core of European retail, generating value comparable to the GDP of many EU member states.
The forecast for 2026? €961 billion — another +5% nominally and +3% in real terms.
Christel Delberghe (EuroCommerce): "The €911 billion market shows that e-commerce is now integral to European retail and wholesale… businesses need room to use artificial intelligence and other digital tools responsibly."
Growth geography: who's growing faster and why
Growth is not uniform across Europe — and it is this unevenness that is most interesting. In nominal terms, the fastest growth in 2025 came from Eastern Europe (+14%), ahead of Southern Europe (+11%) and Central Europe (+8%). They are followed by more mature markets: Northern Europe (+6%) and Western Europe (+5%) — though the latter still accounts for 57% of the entire market. In real terms, Southern Europe is growing fastest (+8%), while Central and Eastern Europe (+5%) remain above the EU average.
The single best indicator of the gap is online buyer penetration (ages 16–74): 75% in 2025 (up from 73% in 2024 and 68% in 2021). The leaders are Northern Europe (85%) and Western Europe (84%); Central Europe 74%, Southern Europe 63%, Eastern Europe 60%.
For a Polish seller, what matters most is reading these numbers through the lens of growth headroom. Central Europe at 74% penetration is catching up with the West (84%) faster than commonly assumed — while Southern and Eastern Europe, where penetration still sits at 60–63%, are only beginning to grow from a very low base. That is where the largest share of new demand in 2026–2027 lies, not in the saturated Western markets.
Regulatory turning point: the end of the shortcut era
2025 is also the last moment of preparation for the biggest regulatory change in years. From July 2026, the €150 customs exemption for parcels is eliminated, and most customs reform provisions take effect from late 2027. Add to that the enforcement of DSA and the proposed EPR OSS. In practice: low-value imports from Asia are no longer automatically immune on price, and producer responsibility extends beyond packaging alone.
Luca Cassetti (Ecommerce Europe): "growth alone is not enough… level playing field between EU and non-EU based operators."
For a Polish seller, this is both an opportunity and an obligation. Leveling the cost advantage of non-EU operators means price ceases to be the only battleground — and that plays to the strengths of local players who have long competed on quality, logistics, and service. But only if they are ready for the new administrative requirements: customs clearance, reporting, packaging responsibility.
AI: from tool to demand distributor
At the same time, the point of purchase itself is shifting. The EuroCommerce and McKinsey report "Rewiring Retail: The AI Imperative" shows that AI is no longer a gimmick — it is becoming a demand distributor. Adoption is accelerating in four areas: customer service, pricing, personalisation, and content creation. For SMEs, AI tools are becoming a game-changer — levelling the playing field against players who until recently won on sheer scale.
On the consumer side, AI use in shopping is also rising. Agentic commerce — agents that shop on behalf of the user — raises a fundamental question about the future role of web stores. If more and more decisions are made by algorithms, the winners will not be the prettiest sites, but those whose data structures and processes are ready for automation.
The convergence of these two trends — regulation and AI — is no coincidence: one levels the playing field, the other shifts the competition from price to data and operational readiness. The store that puts its product data in order and deploys AI in pricing or customer service today will, in two years, find itself on the side of the market that gains — regardless of how the fine print of customs reform plays out.
Summary: growth is certain, profit is not
€911 billion in 2025, €961 billion forecast for 2026, +7% and +5% momentum — the growth itself is as close to a sure thing as retail gets. But from here on, the first-order question is no longer obvious: who is really making the money?
The fastest-growing regions are still chasing the West in penetration. Regulations are turning the flywheel in favour of players with administrative readiness. And AI is deciding who gets the demand flow and who loses it. This is no longer a question of whether Polish e-commerce will grow — it is whether it will grow in your revenue.
Is your model — pricing, logistics, and data — ready for a Europe where regulations and AI decide profits, not just margin?
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